Ascot 2.20
Wizz Kid 1 pt Win @4.6 BF and 1 pt place 2.04 BF
Recent winner of the Abbaye and 2nd in this race last year. Goes well on soft/heavy imo a 5/2 shot.
Ascot 2.55
Great Heavens 1 pt Win @4.7 BF and 1 pt place @1.86 BF
6th in the Arc. Winner of Irish Oaks. Top rated OR and by Timeform.
Acts on heavy going. Beaten 3 of the current field plus hold others on
collateral form lines. If not left her race behind in Paris should go
close here. Again a little overprice, imo a 11/4 shot.
Ascot 3.30
If dead 8 place bet 15-20 mins before start
Exclusive Kate 1 pt e/w c6/1 atm
Cityscape 1 pt e/w @5/1 atm
Else 1 pt e/w at BF SP if <8 above.="above." both="both" p="p" runners="runners">
The favourite beat these 2 in France. But Cityscape is by Selkirk
and Excelebration is by Exceed and Excel. Imo Cityscape my do better on
this surface even if the “expert” thing Cityscape is better on firm.
Strange how he won easily in very soft last year in France. Exclusive
Kate could be a classic late season filly improver. Been placed or won 5
group ones. In her last race(Group 1) apparently one of her shoes came
loose and this may have stopped her winning. Note the winner went on to
victory in a Grade
Cavelloman
Saturday 20 October 2012
Friday 12 October 2012
SATURDAY FREE BETS 13/10/12
Newmarket 2.55
Place market:
Ferryman 1 pt @4/1 Bet365
George Vancouver 1.5 pts @11/4 Bet365
Feel that Ashdan is too short based on his efforts so far compared with the O’Brien duo. I may consider some smaller e/w bets here on these two
Newmarket 3.35
Hurricane Higgins 0.5 pts e/w @14/1 General(BOG 5 place at 1/4 odds)
Having placed LTO in a group race, appears to have got a “low weight” here. Top rated by Timeform and due to go up in OR terms in the future.
Chepstow 3.40
Feel the favourite Hinterland is underpriced on what been achieved by him. Most of the feild is outside the handicap proper so I consider 2 here may be overpriced.
Swampfire 1 pt win @10/1 Bet365(BOG)
Captain Sharpe 1 pt @10/1 Paddy Power.(BOG)
The first is now trained by Tin Vaughan and the booking of Dickie Johnson may indicated his form from Ireland may be improved.
Captain Sharpe had a recent “pipe opener” on the AW recent. Good form in handicaps and would have won a race here last season if not falling at the last. I feel the combined odds of 11/2 on these 2 is a bit too long.
Cavelloman
Place market:
Ferryman 1 pt @4/1 Bet365
George Vancouver 1.5 pts @11/4 Bet365
Feel that Ashdan is too short based on his efforts so far compared with the O’Brien duo. I may consider some smaller e/w bets here on these two
Newmarket 3.35
Hurricane Higgins 0.5 pts e/w @14/1 General(BOG 5 place at 1/4 odds)
Having placed LTO in a group race, appears to have got a “low weight” here. Top rated by Timeform and due to go up in OR terms in the future.
Chepstow 3.40
Feel the favourite Hinterland is underpriced on what been achieved by him. Most of the feild is outside the handicap proper so I consider 2 here may be overpriced.
Swampfire 1 pt win @10/1 Bet365(BOG)
Captain Sharpe 1 pt @10/1 Paddy Power.(BOG)
The first is now trained by Tin Vaughan and the booking of Dickie Johnson may indicated his form from Ireland may be improved.
Captain Sharpe had a recent “pipe opener” on the AW recent. Good form in handicaps and would have won a race here last season if not falling at the last. I feel the combined odds of 11/2 on these 2 is a bit too long.
Cavelloman
Saturday 6 October 2012
SATURDAY FREE BET 6/10/12
Newmarket 2.15
The Gold Cheongsam 1 pt win @5/1 Bet365(BOG)
Difficult day imo. But this runner is the best in terms of rating and class of opposition raced against. Small bet on a quiet racing day in terms of betting.
The Gold Cheongsam 1 pt win @5/1 Bet365(BOG)
Difficult day imo. But this runner is the best in terms of rating and class of opposition raced against. Small bet on a quiet racing day in terms of betting.
Saturday 22 September 2012
SATURDAY FREE BETS 22/9/12
Ayr 3.30
Cheka 0.5 pt e/w @18/1 Hills (BOG 5 places 1/4 odds)
Morache Music 0.3 pt e/w @25/1 General (BOG 5 places 1/4 odds)
Boastful 0.3 pt pt e/w @281/1 Bet365 (BOG 5 places 1/4 odds)
All above have good form on a heavy/soft surface plus have competed at >= listed class. With 5 places available at a 1/4 odds the punters is given a mathematical advantage so some kind of e/w investment is justified regardless of the difficulty of nailing a winning selection.
Catterick 5.25
Summer Dance 0.8 pts win @9/2 Bet365(BOG)
Won recently and is now running of a rating significantly lower than a year ago. Could follow up here.
Cavelloman
Saturday 8 September 2012
Saturday Free Bet 8/9/12
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00
Just Lille 2 pts win @7/4(BOG)
Runners carrying higher weights in claimers do better than those carrying lower weights. But also with adjusted ORs this one looks well in apart from one runner Mesariya, who may be the lurker in the race(1st time hood).
Haydock 3.25
Ortensia 1pt @7/2 Betfred (BOG)
Earlier in the week I consider 2/1-5/2 too short. But now 7/2/100/30 represent a bit of value imo. Excuses have been made for her market rival. But looking at her record in Australia the mare could be even better over the extra furlong. Small bet justified here.
Cavelloman
Just Lille 2 pts win @7/4(BOG)
Runners carrying higher weights in claimers do better than those carrying lower weights. But also with adjusted ORs this one looks well in apart from one runner Mesariya, who may be the lurker in the race(1st time hood).
Haydock 3.25
Ortensia 1pt @7/2 Betfred (BOG)
Earlier in the week I consider 2/1-5/2 too short. But now 7/2/100/30 represent a bit of value imo. Excuses have been made for her market rival. But looking at her record in Australia the mare could be even better over the extra furlong. Small bet justified here.
Cavelloman
Saturday 25 August 2012
Saturday Free Bet 25/8/12
YORK 4.50
Party Royal 1 pt Win @12/1 General(BOG) 14.0/15.0 on exchanges
Top rated by myself plus 2 other well known time masters. Ran well LTO at Goodwood in a high class nursery. A little overpriced ATM.
Cartmel 4.20
Epee Celeste 2 pts @15/8 Ladbrokes
Course winner the jockey switch here to Sam Twiston- Davis is interesting. Previously trained Nigel and during this period was ridden and won on by Sam.
Windsor 6.15
Songcraft 1 pt win @2/1 (BOG)
Top rated on ORs. Form in higher class events. At this time of year Bin Surror’s horses often show their best form in this country.
Cavelloman
Party Royal 1 pt Win @12/1 General(BOG) 14.0/15.0 on exchanges
Top rated by myself plus 2 other well known time masters. Ran well LTO at Goodwood in a high class nursery. A little overpriced ATM.
Cartmel 4.20
Epee Celeste 2 pts @15/8 Ladbrokes
Course winner the jockey switch here to Sam Twiston- Davis is interesting. Previously trained Nigel and during this period was ridden and won on by Sam.
Windsor 6.15
Songcraft 1 pt win @2/1 (BOG)
Top rated on ORs. Form in higher class events. At this time of year Bin Surror’s horses often show their best form in this country.
Cavelloman
Saturday 11 August 2012
Saturday Free Bet 11/8/12
Usual Saturday fare. So I will be advising a low level Patent at BOG odds.
Annie Walker 4.20 Redcar. @Evens
Recently won a class handicap. Acts on course. Horses generally with higher claims do better in these event. Appears to have just one serious rival.
Sabore 4.55 Redcar. @Evens
Has run well at Redcar x 2 and in a very poor race looks the obvious choice.
Uriah Heep 4.45 Newmarket @11/8
I assume recently gelded but ran well at Royal Ascot. There are a few lurkers in the field but expect any maiden rated over 80 to go close at this time of year in a maiden race.
Cavelloman
0.25 pts Win Patent Outlay 1.75 pts. All prices BET365
Annie Walker 4.20 Redcar. @Evens
Recently won a class handicap. Acts on course. Horses generally with higher claims do better in these event. Appears to have just one serious rival.
Sabore 4.55 Redcar. @Evens
Has run well at Redcar x 2 and in a very poor race looks the obvious choice.
Uriah Heep 4.45 Newmarket @11/8
I assume recently gelded but ran well at Royal Ascot. There are a few lurkers in the field but expect any maiden rated over 80 to go close at this time of year in a maiden race.
Cavelloman
0.25 pts Win Patent Outlay 1.75 pts. All prices BET365
Saturday 4 August 2012
Saturday Free Bet 4/8/12
Landaman 5.40 Goodwood 4 pts win @13/8 Bet365(BOG)
Won this week here. Down in class and ridden by an apprentice with a high SR.
Cavelloman
Won this week here. Down in class and ridden by an apprentice with a high SR.
Cavelloman
Saturday 28 July 2012
EARLY OLYMPIC ATHLETICS BETS
Women Discus
Pischalnikova, 4 pts Win @9/4+ Stan James
Back from a long suspension but now showing improved form in Russia this season. Prior to suspension won European Championship in 2006.
Women Hammer
Miankova 4 pts e/w @7/2 BetFred
The 2008 champion suddenly returned to form after a two year period when she was throwing rather poorly compared to her high standards. Longest throw this season and 3 of the 5 longest as well.
Women Pole Vault
Murer 2 pts e/w @15/2 Bet365
The World Champion and looks overpriced with doubts about the form of Isinbaeva
Suhr 2 pts win @5/1
Consistent high vaulter and could improve from her last Olympics where she won silver.
Men 400M Hurdles
Greene, 3 pts e/w @11/4 BetFred (3 places 1/5),
Hard to see if all goes to plan how he can't place at worse. Been losing out to Culson this season so far this year but I expect this could be a close race.
Men Shot Put
Whiting 1 pt e/w @12/1 Bet365 (2 places 1/3)
This man's prices looks too big to me. Won World Indoor Championship this year when hitting 22,00M. 2nd in US trials.
Saver
Cantwell 1 pt win @4/1
Won World in past and one always capable of a big one
Men Discus
Malachowski 2 pts e/w @8/1 Ladrokes(3 places 1/5)
Current European Champ. Been placed 3 from 7 attempts in European, Olympic and World Championships. Silver medal from last Olympics.
Saver
Alekna 2 pts win @13/2 SkyBet
Been showing improved form this year and looks back to his best..
Have managed to get a few other on the exchanges at prices much bigger than the bookmakers. Claye MTJ.. Montsho W400M.
But with the shorter track races I like to see the heats before placing any bets. Especially on odds-on shots.
Pischalnikova, 4 pts Win @9/4+ Stan James
Back from a long suspension but now showing improved form in Russia this season. Prior to suspension won European Championship in 2006.
Women Hammer
Miankova 4 pts e/w @7/2 BetFred
The 2008 champion suddenly returned to form after a two year period when she was throwing rather poorly compared to her high standards. Longest throw this season and 3 of the 5 longest as well.
Women Pole Vault
Murer 2 pts e/w @15/2 Bet365
The World Champion and looks overpriced with doubts about the form of Isinbaeva
Suhr 2 pts win @5/1
Consistent high vaulter and could improve from her last Olympics where she won silver.
Men 400M Hurdles
Greene, 3 pts e/w @11/4 BetFred (3 places 1/5),
Hard to see if all goes to plan how he can't place at worse. Been losing out to Culson this season so far this year but I expect this could be a close race.
Men Shot Put
Whiting 1 pt e/w @12/1 Bet365 (2 places 1/3)
This man's prices looks too big to me. Won World Indoor Championship this year when hitting 22,00M. 2nd in US trials.
Saver
Cantwell 1 pt win @4/1
Won World in past and one always capable of a big one
Men Discus
Malachowski 2 pts e/w @8/1 Ladrokes(3 places 1/5)
Current European Champ. Been placed 3 from 7 attempts in European, Olympic and World Championships. Silver medal from last Olympics.
Saver
Alekna 2 pts win @13/2 SkyBet
Been showing improved form this year and looks back to his best..
Have managed to get a few other on the exchanges at prices much bigger than the bookmakers. Claye MTJ.. Montsho W400M.
But with the shorter track races I like to see the heats before placing any bets. Especially on odds-on shots.
Saturday 21 July 2012
Saturday Free Bet 21/7/12
Newmarket 5.00
Cathedral 2 pts Win @2/1 Bet365 (BOG)
Pashan Garh 1 pt Win @6/1 Stan James/SkBet
Cathedral's speed figure from Dave Bellingham is well above the normal speed par for a race of this class and now dwon in distance must have a good chance here.
Pashan Garh is only just behind the fav in terms of ratings and at 6/1 looks a little overpriced.
Cavelloman
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