Ascot 2.20
Wizz Kid 1 pt Win @4.6 BF and 1 pt place 2.04 BF
Recent winner of the Abbaye and 2nd in this race last year. Goes well on soft/heavy imo a 5/2 shot.
Ascot 2.55
Great Heavens 1 pt Win @4.7 BF and 1 pt place @1.86 BF
6th in the Arc. Winner of Irish Oaks. Top rated OR and by Timeform.
Acts on heavy going. Beaten 3 of the current field plus hold others on
collateral form lines. If not left her race behind in Paris should go
close here. Again a little overprice, imo a 11/4 shot.
Ascot 3.30
If dead 8 place bet 15-20 mins before start
Exclusive Kate 1 pt e/w c6/1 atm
Cityscape 1 pt e/w @5/1 atm
Else 1 pt e/w at BF SP if <8 above.="above." both="both" p="p" runners="runners">
The favourite beat these 2 in France. But Cityscape is by Selkirk
and Excelebration is by Exceed and Excel. Imo Cityscape my do better on
this surface even if the “expert” thing Cityscape is better on firm.
Strange how he won easily in very soft last year in France. Exclusive
Kate could be a classic late season filly improver. Been placed or won 5
group ones. In her last race(Group 1) apparently one of her shoes came
loose and this may have stopped her winning. Note the winner went on to
victory in a Grade
Cavelloman
Saturday 20 October 2012
Friday 12 October 2012
SATURDAY FREE BETS 13/10/12
Newmarket 2.55
Place market:
Ferryman 1 pt @4/1 Bet365
George Vancouver 1.5 pts @11/4 Bet365
Feel that Ashdan is too short based on his efforts so far compared with the O’Brien duo. I may consider some smaller e/w bets here on these two
Newmarket 3.35
Hurricane Higgins 0.5 pts e/w @14/1 General(BOG 5 place at 1/4 odds)
Having placed LTO in a group race, appears to have got a “low weight” here. Top rated by Timeform and due to go up in OR terms in the future.
Chepstow 3.40
Feel the favourite Hinterland is underpriced on what been achieved by him. Most of the feild is outside the handicap proper so I consider 2 here may be overpriced.
Swampfire 1 pt win @10/1 Bet365(BOG)
Captain Sharpe 1 pt @10/1 Paddy Power.(BOG)
The first is now trained by Tin Vaughan and the booking of Dickie Johnson may indicated his form from Ireland may be improved.
Captain Sharpe had a recent “pipe opener” on the AW recent. Good form in handicaps and would have won a race here last season if not falling at the last. I feel the combined odds of 11/2 on these 2 is a bit too long.
Cavelloman
Place market:
Ferryman 1 pt @4/1 Bet365
George Vancouver 1.5 pts @11/4 Bet365
Feel that Ashdan is too short based on his efforts so far compared with the O’Brien duo. I may consider some smaller e/w bets here on these two
Newmarket 3.35
Hurricane Higgins 0.5 pts e/w @14/1 General(BOG 5 place at 1/4 odds)
Having placed LTO in a group race, appears to have got a “low weight” here. Top rated by Timeform and due to go up in OR terms in the future.
Chepstow 3.40
Feel the favourite Hinterland is underpriced on what been achieved by him. Most of the feild is outside the handicap proper so I consider 2 here may be overpriced.
Swampfire 1 pt win @10/1 Bet365(BOG)
Captain Sharpe 1 pt @10/1 Paddy Power.(BOG)
The first is now trained by Tin Vaughan and the booking of Dickie Johnson may indicated his form from Ireland may be improved.
Captain Sharpe had a recent “pipe opener” on the AW recent. Good form in handicaps and would have won a race here last season if not falling at the last. I feel the combined odds of 11/2 on these 2 is a bit too long.
Cavelloman
Saturday 6 October 2012
SATURDAY FREE BET 6/10/12
Newmarket 2.15
The Gold Cheongsam 1 pt win @5/1 Bet365(BOG)
Difficult day imo. But this runner is the best in terms of rating and class of opposition raced against. Small bet on a quiet racing day in terms of betting.
The Gold Cheongsam 1 pt win @5/1 Bet365(BOG)
Difficult day imo. But this runner is the best in terms of rating and class of opposition raced against. Small bet on a quiet racing day in terms of betting.
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