SATURDAY FREE BET(S)

Newmarket 2.00.

With an odds on shot in the race and 1/4 odds available from Bet365(+ free bet in next chl 4 race if finding winner) some e/w value here and a shot gun approach may pay off here. All BOG with Bet365.

Cameron Highland 1.5 pts e/w @4/1

Miblish 1 pt e/w @8/1

Switzerland 0.5 pt e/w @14/1

Perfect Delight o.5 pt e/w @14/1

Saturday Free Bet

Ascot 4.25

Medicean Man 1/2 pt e/w @12/1 Bet365(5 Places)

Ran a blinder in King's Stand and could go close if showing same form.

Ascot 5.30

Zuider Zee 1 pt e/w @4/1 Bog (1/3 odds) Bet365
Simenon 1 pt e/w @11/4  Bog (1/3 odds) Bet365
Petara Bay 1/2 e/w @12/1  Bog (1/3 odds) Bet365

Zuider Zee would not have been out of place in Gold Cup and this represents a drop in class from last run. Simeon won earlier this win easily so a no brainer to cover e/w.
Petara runs rarely. But is often placed in high grade events.

Saturday@s Bet Shows Profit Again.

The advised forecast combo paid off nicely.


Winning forecast over 19/1.

Saturday Free Bet

On a poor betting day I will be taking a very moderate interest in the first Hexham 2.25. I feel the favourite in this race Three White Socks, rated only 60 on the flat, in his first hurdle race over 3 miles in very heavy ground could easily finish out of the money. So I would suggest some low level f/cs on the next three in the betting.

 Farm Pixie
 On Broadway
 My Idea


These can be bet at various odds of 12.82,20.75 and 24.82 for the f/c at the moment with Bet365. Pick out each combo individually on the Bet365 site. 6 x 1/6 pts f/c above 3.

 Cavelloman

WHY YOU MUST BET E/W IN EURO 12 OUTRIGHT MARKET.

The Euro 12 outright winner market is very close to 100% and this means the arbitrary 1/2 odds for a finalist gives the backer a slight edge.

Let take a perfect 16 teams competition where all teams are of equal ability and the markets is at 100%.

In such a market the win odds would be 15/1 and the probability of a team winning would be 6.25%

In the same market the odds of reaching the final would be 7/1 and the probability of a team reaching the final would be 12.5%. But with 1/2 odds for reaching the final we would have odds of 15/2 or 7.5/1. This means 106.25%  is returned to the punters from the finalist element of  each/way bets in an outright market.

My personal bets are

Netherlands e/w @7/1, France e/w @12/1, Italy e/w @14/1, Portugal e/w @201/, Russia e/w @22/1, Poland e/w @50/1 Ukraine e/w @50/1,  Sweden e/w @66/1 and Czech Republic e/w @80/1. Staking level based on price. I may yet have a saver on Spain. Yesterday I got on for peanuts will Hills on Germany @4/1.

TEAM	BOOK ODDS	BF WIN	BF FINALIST	EDGE
SPAIN	4	3.9	2.35	109.11
GERMANY	4.33	4.6	2.64	95.02
NETHERLAND	8	7.9	4.1	111.15
FRANCE	13	12	5.7	133.04
ENGLAND	16	16	8.1	104.94
ITALY	15	19	7.6	83.10
PORTUGAL	21	21.5	9.6	111.92
RUSSIA	23	21.5	9.6	133.72
CROATIA	51	70	21	90.20
POLAND	51	49	23	117.66
UKRAINE	51	63	19.5	107.94
SWEDEN	67	73	24	130.02
CZECH REPUBLIC	81	93	26	137.34
IRELAND	101	110	42	111.49
GREECE	101	120	34	126.25
DENMARK	101	130	40	99.06

SATURDAY FREE BETS

BEVERLEY 2. 30

Landaman 4 pts @8/11

Won easily over CD just a few days ago. This was the first time on firmer going for this Cape Cross offspring.

THE DERBY

Bonfire 1 pt e/w @5/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds BOG)

Rated jusr 2 behind the favourite by Timeform and with both having a p. But surely at the prices this represent a little e/w value.