SATURDAY FREE BETS 20/10/12

Ascot 2.20

Wizz Kid 1 pt Win @4.6 BF and 1 pt place 2.04 BF

Recent winner of the Abbaye and 2nd in this race last year. Goes well on soft/heavy imo a 5/2 shot.

Ascot 2.55

Great Heavens 1 pt Win @4.7 BF and 1 pt place @1.86 BF

6th in the Arc. Winner of Irish Oaks. Top rated OR and by Timeform. Acts on heavy going. Beaten 3 of the current field plus hold others on collateral form lines. If not left her race behind in Paris should go close here. Again a little overprice, imo a 11/4 shot.

Ascot 3.30
If dead 8 place bet 15-20 mins before start

Exclusive Kate 1 pt e/w c6/1 atm

Cityscape 1 pt e/w @5/1 atm

Else 1 pt e/w at BF SP if <8 above.="above." both="both" p="p" runners="runners">
The favourite  beat these 2 in France. But Cityscape is by Selkirk and Excelebration is by Exceed and Excel. Imo Cityscape my do better on this surface even if the “expert” thing Cityscape is better on firm. Strange how he won easily in very soft last year in France.  Exclusive Kate could be a classic late season filly improver. Been placed or won 5 group ones. In her last race(Group 1) apparently one of her shoes came loose and this may have stopped her winning. Note the winner went on to victory in a Grade


Cavelloman

SATURDAY FREE BETS 13/10/12

Newmarket 2.55

Place market:

Ferryman 1 pt @4/1 Bet365
George Vancouver 1.5 pts @11/4 Bet365
Feel that Ashdan is too short based on his efforts so far compared with the O’Brien duo. I may consider some smaller e/w bets here on these two

Newmarket 3.35
Hurricane Higgins 0.5 pts e/w @14/1 General(BOG 5 place at 1/4 odds)
Having placed LTO in a group race, appears to have got a “low weight” here. Top rated by Timeform and due to go up in OR terms in the future.

Chepstow 3.40
Feel the favourite Hinterland is underpriced on what been achieved by him. Most of the feild is outside the handicap proper so I consider 2 here may be overpriced.

Swampfire 1 pt win @10/1 Bet365(BOG)

Captain Sharpe 1 pt @10/1 Paddy Power.(BOG)

The first is now trained by Tin Vaughan and the booking of Dickie Johnson may indicated his form from Ireland may be improved.
Captain Sharpe had a recent “pipe opener” on the AW recent. Good form in handicaps and would have won a race here last season if not falling at the last. I feel the combined odds of 11/2 on these 2 is a bit too long.

Cavelloman

SATURDAY FREE BET 6/10/12

Newmarket 2.15


The Gold Cheongsam 1 pt win @5/1 Bet365(BOG)

Difficult day imo. But this runner is the best in terms of rating and class of opposition raced against. Small bet on a quiet racing day in terms of betting.

SATURDAY FREE BETS 22/9/12

Ayr 3.30

Cheka 0.5 pt e/w @18/1 Hills (BOG 5 places 1/4 odds)
Morache Music 0.3 pt e/w @25/1 General (BOG 5 places 1/4 odds)
Boastful  0.3 pt pt e/w @281/1 Bet365 (BOG 5 places 1/4 odds)

All above have good form on a heavy/soft surface plus have competed at >= listed class. With 5 places available at a 1/4 odds the punters is given a mathematical advantage so some kind of e/w investment is justified regardless of the difficulty of nailing a winning selection.


Catterick 5.25

Summer Dance 0.8 pts win @9/2 Bet365(BOG)

Won recently and is now running of a rating significantly lower than a year ago. Could follow up here.


Cavelloman

Saturday Free Bet 8/9/12

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00



Just Lille 2 pts win @7/4(BOG)



Runners carrying higher weights in claimers do better than those carrying lower weights. But also with adjusted ORs this one looks well in apart from one runner Mesariya, who may be the lurker in the race(1st time hood).



Haydock 3.25

Ortensia 1pt @7/2 Betfred (BOG)

Earlier in the week I consider 2/1-5/2 too short. But now 7/2/100/30 represent a bit of value imo. Excuses have been made for her market rival. But looking at her record in Australia the mare could be even better over the extra furlong. Small bet justified here.

Cavelloman

Saturday Free Bet 25/8/12

YORK 4.50

Party Royal 1 pt Win @12/1 General(BOG) 14.0/15.0 on exchanges

Top rated by myself plus 2 other well known time masters. Ran well LTO at Goodwood in a high class nursery. A little overpriced ATM.

Cartmel 4.20

Epee Celeste 2 pts @15/8 Ladbrokes

Course winner the jockey switch here to Sam Twiston- Davis is interesting. Previously trained Nigel and during this period was ridden and won on by Sam.

Windsor 6.15

Songcraft 1 pt win @2/1 (BOG)

Top rated on ORs. Form in higher class events. At this time of year Bin Surror’s horses often show their best form in this country.



Cavelloman

Saturday Free Bet 11/8/12

Usual Saturday fare. So I will be advising a low level Patent at BOG odds.


Annie Walker 4.20 Redcar. @Evens

Recently won a class handicap. Acts on course. Horses generally with higher claims do better in these event. Appears to have just one serious rival.

Sabore 4.55 Redcar. @Evens

Has run well at Redcar x 2 and in a very poor race looks the obvious choice.

Uriah Heep 4.45 Newmarket @11/8

I assume recently gelded but ran well at Royal Ascot. There are a few lurkers in the field but expect any maiden rated over 80 to go close at this time of year in a maiden race.


Cavelloman


0.25 pts Win Patent Outlay 1.75 pts. All prices BET365

Saturday Free Bet 4/8/12

Landaman 5.40 Goodwood 4 pts win @13/8 Bet365(BOG)

Won this week here. Down in class and ridden by an apprentice with a high SR.


Cavelloman

EARLY OLYMPIC ATHLETICS BETS

Women Discus

Pischalnikova, 4 pts Win @9/4+ Stan James

Back from a long suspension but now showing improved form in Russia this season. Prior to suspension won European Championship in 2006. 

Women Hammer

Miankova   4 pts e/w  @7/2 BetFred

The 2008 champion suddenly returned to form after a two year period when she was throwing rather poorly compared to her high standards. Longest throw this season and 3 of the 5 longest as well.

Women Pole Vault

Murer 2 pts e/w  @15/2 Bet365

The World Champion and looks overpriced with doubts about the form of Isinbaeva

Suhr 2 pts win @5/1

Consistent high vaulter and could improve from her last Olympics where she won silver.

Men 400M Hurdles

Greene, 3 pts e/w @11/4 BetFred (3 places 1/5),

Hard to see if all goes to plan how he can't place at worse. Been losing out to Culson this season so far this year but I expect this could be a close race.

Men Shot Put

Whiting 1 pt e/w @12/1 Bet365 (2 places 1/3)

This man's prices looks too big to me. Won World Indoor Championship this year when hitting 22,00M.  2nd in US trials.

Saver 

Cantwell 1 pt win @4/1

Won World in past and one always capable of a big one


Men Discus


Malachowski 2 pts e/w @8/1 Ladrokes(3 places 1/5)

Current European Champ. Been placed 3 from 7 attempts in European, Olympic and World Championships. Silver medal from last Olympics.

Saver


Alekna 2 pts win @13/2 SkyBet

Been showing improved form this year and looks back to his best..

Have managed to get a few other on the exchanges at prices much bigger than the bookmakers. Claye MTJ.. Montsho W400M.

But with the shorter track races I like to see the heats before placing any bets. Especially on odds-on shots.

Saturday Free Bet 21/7/12

Newmarket 5.00

Cathedral  2 pts Win @2/1 Bet365 (BOG)

Pashan Garh 1 pt Win @6/1 Stan James/SkBet

Cathedral's speed figure from Dave Bellingham is well above the normal speed par for a race of this class and now dwon in distance must have a good chance here.

Pashan Garh is only just behind the fav in terms of ratings and at 6/1 looks a little overpriced.

Cavelloman

Saturday Free Bet

York 2.25


Suraj 1 pt win @3/1 General (BOG)

3 Y Os are at an advantage with the WFA scale over longer distances and with a number of the older horses outside the handicap proper I'm prepared to make a small bet on this 3YO.


Cavelloman

SATURDAY FREE BET(S)

Newmarket 2.00.

With an odds on shot in the race and 1/4 odds available from Bet365(+ free bet in next chl 4 race if finding winner) some e/w value here and a shot gun approach may pay off here. All BOG with Bet365.

Cameron Highland 1.5 pts e/w @4/1

Miblish 1 pt e/w @8/1

Switzerland 0.5 pt e/w @14/1

Perfect Delight o.5 pt e/w @14/1

Saturday Free Bet

Ascot 4.25

Medicean Man 1/2 pt e/w @12/1 Bet365(5 Places)

Ran a blinder in King's Stand and could go close if showing same form.

Ascot 5.30

Zuider Zee 1 pt e/w @4/1 Bog (1/3 odds) Bet365
Simenon 1 pt e/w @11/4  Bog (1/3 odds) Bet365
Petara Bay 1/2 e/w @12/1  Bog (1/3 odds) Bet365

Zuider Zee would not have been out of place in Gold Cup and this represents a drop in class from last run. Simeon won earlier this win easily so a no brainer to cover e/w.
Petara runs rarely. But is often placed in high grade events.

Saturday@s Bet Shows Profit Again.

The advised forecast combo paid off nicely.


Winning forecast over 19/1.

Saturday Free Bet

On a poor betting day I will be taking a very moderate interest in the first Hexham 2.25. I feel the favourite in this race Three White Socks, rated only 60 on the flat, in his first hurdle race over 3 miles in very heavy ground could easily finish out of the money. So I would suggest some low level f/cs on the next three in the betting.

 Farm Pixie
 On Broadway
 My Idea


These can be bet at various odds of 12.82,20.75 and 24.82 for the f/c at the moment with Bet365. Pick out each combo individually on the Bet365 site. 6 x 1/6 pts f/c above 3.

 Cavelloman

WHY YOU MUST BET E/W IN EURO 12 OUTRIGHT MARKET.

The Euro 12 outright winner market is very close to 100% and this means the arbitrary 1/2 odds for a finalist gives the backer a slight edge.

Let take a perfect 16 teams competition where all teams are of equal ability and the markets is at 100%.

In such a market the win odds would be 15/1 and the probability of a team winning would be 6.25%

In the same market the odds of reaching the final would be 7/1 and the probability of a team reaching the final would be 12.5%. But with 1/2 odds for reaching the final we would have odds of 15/2 or 7.5/1. This means 106.25%  is returned to the punters from the finalist element of  each/way bets in an outright market.

My personal bets are

Netherlands e/w @7/1, France e/w @12/1, Italy e/w @14/1, Portugal e/w @201/, Russia e/w @22/1, Poland e/w @50/1 Ukraine e/w @50/1,  Sweden e/w @66/1 and Czech Republic e/w @80/1. Staking level based on price. I may yet have a saver on Spain. Yesterday I got on for peanuts will Hills on Germany @4/1.

TEAM	BOOK ODDS	BF WIN	BF FINALIST	EDGE
SPAIN	4	3.9	2.35	109.11
GERMANY	4.33	4.6	2.64	95.02
NETHERLAND	8	7.9	4.1	111.15
FRANCE	13	12	5.7	133.04
ENGLAND	16	16	8.1	104.94
ITALY	15	19	7.6	83.10
PORTUGAL	21	21.5	9.6	111.92
RUSSIA	23	21.5	9.6	133.72
CROATIA	51	70	21	90.20
POLAND	51	49	23	117.66
UKRAINE	51	63	19.5	107.94
SWEDEN	67	73	24	130.02
CZECH REPUBLIC	81	93	26	137.34
IRELAND	101	110	42	111.49
GREECE	101	120	34	126.25
DENMARK	101	130	40	99.06

SATURDAY FREE BETS

BEVERLEY 2. 30

Landaman 4 pts @8/11

Won easily over CD just a few days ago. This was the first time on firmer going for this Cape Cross offspring.

THE DERBY

Bonfire 1 pt e/w @5/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds BOG)

Rated jusr 2 behind the favourite by Timeform and with both having a p. But surely at the prices this represent a little e/w value.

SOLE ADVICE ON WEDNESDAY WINS

Now Its My Turn advised at 11/2(odds of c7-8/1 on exchanges) wins at SP of 9/2

A Happy Client

Hi Cavelloman Amazing stuff again,what a great ratings system you have and thanks for all your hard work regards Jason.

NICE PROFIT FOR CAVELLOMAN'S E-MAIL CLIENTS FROM FOOTBALL ANTE-POST BETS

BET	PRICE	STAKE	RETURN
M K DONS E/W	7/1	4	0
SCUNTHORPE	50/1	2	0
DAG + RED	50/1	2	0
LUTON	7/2	4	0
TAMWORTH	16/1	1	0
MIDDLESBORO	9/1	2	0
MAN CITY 4 PTS E/W E/W + HEDGE	5/2	12	21.33
CHELSEA E/W	6/1	5	0
CRAWLEY PROM	8/11	10	17.27
DUNFERMINLINE BOT SPL 10 PTS  + HEDGE	2/1	14	30
ALDERSHOT PROMO	7/1	1	0
BARNSLEY REL	9/2	4	0
LILLE    E/W	8/1	10	0
CHESTERFIELD REL	5/2	4	14
YORK E/W	11/2	8	0
HARTLEPOOL REL	8/1	3	0
CREWE REL	18/1	1	0
HEREFORD REL  3 @9/2 + 2 @5/1  + HEDGE	9/2	13	28.5
EXETER	9/4	7	22.75
MARSEILLE E/W	25/1	2	0
MONTPELLIER E/W	10/1	2	15.33
JUVENTUS   E/W +  HEDGE	7/4	15	26
YEOVIL	4/6	10	0
WYCOMBE  + HEDGE	4/6	14	17
WOLVES REL	7/4	6	18.75
BOLTON REL + HEDGE	1/1	22	20
BLACKBURN BOT	2/1	5	0
BOLTON BOT	11/2	5	0
WOLVES BOT	9/1	3	30
BRADFORD	5/1	5	0
HEARTS WITHOUT BIG 2	7/2	3	0
HEARTS/DUNDEE UTD/ ST MIRREN S CUP  + HEDGE	12/1-50/1	18	40
BIRMINGHAM E/W	25/1	2	0
BIRMINGHAM PROMO	5/1	2	0
SOUTHAMPTON E/W	9/4	10	7.25
MACCLESFIELD	12/5	4	13.6
PRESTON	12/1	2	0
SOUTHEND PROMO + HEDGE TORQUAY	8/15	18	0
TOTALS		255	321.78

PROFIT  +66.78 PTS

SUPER WEEKEND FOR FOLLOWERS

Hearts won Scottish Cup advised @12/1 e/w
Montpellier won Lique 1 advised @10/1 e/w


System Lays profits increase after 6 favourites are sunk.

ROI for System Lays 2012 +14.6%
Profit Long Term Football Bets = +25.9%
Profit Football Match Bets = +207 Pts 

CLASSFORMRATINGS 19/5/12

NEWBURY 3.40
No	Horse	RATING
4	Frankel	1685
3	Excelebration (IRE)	1460
6	Strong Suit (USA)	1263
2	Dubawi Gold	1148
7	Windsor Palace (IRE)	1034
5	Ransom Note	848
1	Bullet Train	702
NEWMARKET 3.20
No	Horse	RATING
1	Saigon	796
5	Silverheels (IRE)	765
4	Mr Red Clubs (IRE)	751
3	Balty Boys (IRE)	614
2	Aljamaaheer (IRE)	262
7	Van Ellis	228
6	The Nile	126

SYSTEM LAYS RESULTS FOR 2012 PLENTY OF ACTION FROM NOW ON

SELECTION	RISK	BF SP	RESULT	P/L	ACC
Bit Of A Madam	2	3.30	L	0.83	0.83
Looking Hopeful	1	2.25	L	0.76	1.59
Princely Player	2	2.20	L	1.58	3.17
Charm School	2	2.65	L	1.15	4.32
Cross The Flag	2	3.13	W	-2.00	2.32
Dancheur	2	4.30	L	0.58	2.90
Oscar Davy	2	2.90	L	1.00	3.90
Billy Twyford	2	3.42	L	0.78	4.68
Hadjis	2	3.73	W	-2.00	2.68
Glorious Twelfth	2	3.30	W	-2.00	0.68
Night Carnation	2	2.59	L	1.19	1.87
Foundation Man	2	3.05	L	0.93	2.80
Basseterre	2	4.03	L	0.63	3.43
Windsor Set	2	3.25	L	0.84	4.27
Mizwaaj	2	3.49	L	0.76	5.03
LIMITS UP	2	3.00	L	0.95	5.98
Hollow Heartbeat	2	3.35	L	0.81	6.79
No No Charlie	2	2.00	W	-2.00	4.79
Hoof It	2	3.35	L	0.81	5.60
Suerte Al Salto	2	3.40	W	-2.00	3.60
Kruzhlinin	2	3.50	W	-2.00	1.60
Lucky Beggar	1	1.90	L	1.05	2.65